GIFT Nifty:

GIFT Nifty July 2025 futures were trading 5 points higher in early trade, suggesting a positive opening for the Nifty 50.

Economy:

India's industrial output growth fell to a nine-month low of 1.2% in May 2025, dragged down by weak performance in the manufacturing, mining, and electricity sectors, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Monday showed. The factory output, measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), had grown 6.3% in May 2024, while the April 2025 estimate has been revised to 2.6%, slightly down from the earlier 2.7%. According to the data, manufacturing ' which forms over three-fourths of the IIP ' grew 2.6% in May, down from 5.1% a year ago. Mining output shrank 0.1%, reversing a 6.6% expansion in May last year. Electricity generation saw a sharp contraction of 5.8% compared to a robust 13.7% growth a year ago.

India's gross collection of goods and services tax (GST) hit an all-time high of Rs 22.08 lakh crore in the financial year 2024-25, marking a 9.4% year-on-year (YoY) growth compared to the previous financial year, according to an official statement on Monday, 30 June 2025. On 1 July 2025, India will mark the completion of eight years since the implementation of the GST.

India's fiscal deficit for the first two months of FY26 stood at Rs 13,163 crore, or just 0.8% of the full-year target of Rs 15.69 lakh crore, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts on Monday. The year-ago deficit for the same period was significantly higher at Rs 50,600 crore.

Institutional Flows:

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth 831.50 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 3,497.44 crore in the Indian equity market on 30 June 2025, provisional data showed.

According to NSDL data, FPIs have bought shares worth Rs 8466.77 crore in June 2024.

Global Markets:

Most Asian shares advanced on Tuesday as investors evaluated record highs on Wall Street and the potential global effects of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. The 90-day tariff reprieve is set to expire next week.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Monday that countries are negotiating in good faith. However, he cautioned that tariffs could return to the levels announced on April 2 if talks do not progress due to what he described as recalcitrant behavior.

Hong Kong market remained closed for a public holiday. In mainland China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in June, a significant improvement from May's reading of 48.3. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion. This data follows the official government PMI, which showed a third consecutive monthly contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity for June.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 gained 0.52% to close at another record high. The NASDAQ Composite rose 0.47%, also reaching a new peak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.63%.

The gains were supported by news of a trade agreement between the United States and China. The agreement raised optimism that further trade deals could be finalized before the July 9 deadline set by President Trump.

Investor sentiment also received a boost after Canada withdrew its digital services tax on technology companies. The tax was scheduled to take effect within hours but was suspended in an effort to revive trade discussions with the United States. President Trump had previously cited the tax as a barrier to negotiations. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump are now expected to meet with the goal of finalizing a trade agreement by July 21.

Domestic Market:

The headline equity benchmarks ended with modest losses on Monday, snapping a four-day winning streak. While easing geopolitical tensions and optimism around US-India trade offered some support, investors remained cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S. tariff deadline on July 9. Private banks and financial services stocks saw selling pressure, dragging indices lower. In contrast, PSU banks and consumer durables stocks attracted buying interest. The S&P BSE Sensex tanked 452.44 points or 0.54% to 83,606.46. The Nifty 50 index fell 120.75 points or 0.47% to 25,517.05. In the previous four consecutive sessions, the Sensex jumped 2.64% while the Nifty rose 2.67%.

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